Ibn Khaldun Center for Development Studies

Introduction

The Ibn Khaldun Center for Development Studies (ICDS) was among the founders of the peace advocacy organization The Search for Common Ground (SCG) in the Middle East , in 1991. On its own and through SCG, ICDS has been involved in studying all the major protracted conflicts in the region (e.g., North & South Sudan, Palestine , Iraq , and Algeria ). The Center went beyond the study to search for better management and accommodation of these conflicts by bringing together the main protagonists and antagonists whenever possible. Since ethno-politics has been the principle dimension of these protracted conflicts, the quest for peace-making has always been a part of our Center's annual report on the state of minority and ethnic groups in the Arab world, as well as our annual conference bearing the same title.

As a rule, ICDS has invited representatives of the conflicting parties to these annual conferences. While the Center cannot claim that its efforts produced tangible results in this regard, it takes credit for upgrading the debate on dealing with issues of conflict and peace in the region. In fact, it was ICDS that first propagated federalism and democracy as optimum modalities for dealing with the conflict of both Sudan and Iraq . Now, this is exactly what the post-war Iraq is grappling with, as well as the peace negotiations in Sudan .

Projects

The information base of ICDS, and trust in its activist approach haveto our gratificationmade the conflicting parties hold ICDS in high regard. The parties in these conflicts have encouraged us in the past to continue our efforts and called upon us to open branches of the Center in Iraq , Sudan , and Gaza ( Palestine ). Having just re-opened after three years of closure, however, ICDS would be unable to fulfill all these demands in the short run. The best that ICDS can do at this point in time is to resume the research and advocacy dimensions of its peace program. The post-Saddam era has opened new opportunities for peaceful resolution to some of the region's protracted conflicts.

With no illusions that such a quest can bear early fruit, we propose to begin by first paving the ground for the future attainment of concrete objectives. Therefore, we suggest the following projects under the peace program.

Removing the Blocks From the Road-Map in Palestine

It has often been contended that the Arab-Israeli conflict is a conflict of "missed opportunities". The last case in point was that of the year 2000 Camp David negotiations. While all parties may bear their share of responsibility for the failure of the Camp David/Taba talks, one important factor in that failure on the Arab-Palestinian side was the upmanship that bordered on demagoguery in rejecting compromises and pressing maximum demands. The 2003 Road-Map offered by the Bush administration and others falls significantly short of what was offered in the Camp David/Taba in the year 2000. Thus, three years later nearly 2000 human lives were needlessly wasted on both sides with escalating consequences of more hatred and distrust.

While the conflict-fatigued Palestinians and Israeli negotiators have accepted the Road-Map in mid 2003, there are no guarantees of success. Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), on both sides, however, can play a vital role in guarding and promoting the process.

This project aims to ensure that whatever compromises are ultimately accepted by the principal negotiating parties within the framework of the Road-Map, they will also have a fair chance of being accepted by the majority of the Palestinians and Israelis, as well as enjoy regional support.

Thus we propose a series of position papers, seminars, and public opinion polls to deliberate alternative outcomes, and the necessary steps to mobilize support for various possible outcomes. This entails identifying the different forces on both sides that may impede or obstruct each of the alternative outcomes, with a view to changing their attitudes. In other words, the project is about a socio-political map of Palestinian, Israeli, and Arab public opinion. This is to be done in cooperation with like-minded research centers in Palestine , Israel , Egypt , Jordan , and Lebanon . Such sister organizations have cooperated with ICDS in the past on similar pursuits.

More specifically, the project is to review the relevant media and literature content during and after Camp David/Taba in these five societies in order to identify the pro-peace and the anti-peace forces, to sample them, and to conduct panel longitudinal research on these samples over the next three years. The objective is to encourage the evolvement of appropriate strategies to foster a culture of peace and reconciliation among these groups in such a way that they will become supportive of the political compromises entailed in the Road-Map. Hopefully, by the year 2005, which is the projected date for the establishment of a Palestinian state, there will be ample support prompting representative politicians from all sides to sign on the dotted line.

Post-War Democratic Iraq

Fifteen years before the last war in Iraq , ICDS concluded that federalism and democracy are the twin solutions for conflict-ridden Iraq . While the Anglo-American coalition forces seem to have entertained a similar approach, there appears to be tremendous difficulties in implementing it. This project aims at spelling out a detailed plan to bring about the twin solution of federalism and democracy in Iraq . This is to be done through a panel of Iraqi scholars and community leaders from inside Iraq , as well from Iraqis in the diaspora. A select number of Arab and international experts may also be on call as advisors if the Iraqi participants so wish.

The pillars of the twin solution should recognize not only the thick pluralistic nature of the Iraqi society but also the relative weight of various human and demographic elements within each ethnic group. The final scheme must be inclusive and perceived as fair by all sides.

The provisional scheme that comes out of the above initiative will be tested in various communities (i.e., Kurds, Turkmen, Shiite Arabs, Sunni Arabs, Assyrians, and Christians). Successive rounds of small scale public opinion polls will be conducted over the proposed scheme as a whole, as well as on its constituent parts. The exercise itself will hopefully initiate an indepth debate among the Iraqis across ethnic groups in the country. This same debate may be encouraged among interested neighbors of Iraq through the use of Arab television satellite stations (e.g., Al Jazirra, Arabyya, and Orbit).

Peace Through Confederalism in Sudan

Sudan obtained its independence in January 1955. Out of the 49 years of independence to date, Sudan has suffered 38 years of bloody civil war. It is well recognized that the Southern Sudanese, who are racially, religiously, and linguistically different from their Northern counterparts, have consistently refused to be directly ruled by Khartoum . The Northern Sudanese, on the other hand, have consistently refused to concede home-rule to the South with the exception of a short-lived 10 year period following the1973 Addis Ababa Agreement.

War-fatigued combatants on both sides, however, are now arriving, albeit reluctantly, to the conclusion that continued fighting will not enable either party to attain its goals. This is a classic situation that makes compromise mandatory. However, for such compromise to be accepted by the majority on both sides, as well as by Sudan 's neighbors, much has to be done.

This project is intended as a contribution to the placing of a fair and sensible solution on the table, in parallel with whatever negotiators on both sides are trying to arrive at. This is to be accomplished through cross-sectional teams of Northern and Southern Sudanese experts who will prepare position papers not only on contested issues but, more importantly, on how to promote whatever solutions they come up with, and equally important how to make the acceptance of both sides sustainable while pre-empting demagogic upmanship.