FEBRUARY 05 NEWSLETTER
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Does the Proposed Constitutional Reform
Provide the MB with Political Opportunities?

President Hosni Mubarak called for constitutional change that would allow direct contested presidential elections. This step brings to the forefront the issue of Muslim Brotherhood's (MB) participation in the political life of the nation. Even though the details of the proposed amendment are still to be debated in parliament, and it remains unclear if candidates unaffiliated to authorized political parties will be allowed to run under certain conditions and what these conditions would entail, political observers are already considering the theoretical and practical implications of MB's participation in the democratic transition of the country.

The Brotherhood had repeatedly declared---lately by one of its leaders, Muhammad El-Hudaybi--- its adherence to democratic principles both on discursive and practical levels, emphasizing that democratic institutions are entirely compatible with the principles of Islam. [1] While the MB vehemently endorses democracy, civil liberties, and freedom; such calls are not free from reservations since these principles are only allowed within a religiously accepted framework, which is not explicitly spelled out. Hence, many skeptics doubt that the MB's endorsement of democratic principles is genuine. They believe that the MB's acceptance of democracy is not ideological, but merely a strategic political tactic to gain legal recognition and further its own interest.

Despite the fact that the MB remains outlawed, it is the only effective opposition that constitutes a threat to the current regime. Unlike authorized political parties, the MB enjoys widespread grassroots support. Moreover, its strategy of gradually reforming the system from within has proved successful since MB members, as a result of cohesiveness and skillful organization, have acceded to the boards of professional syndicates and to the People's Assembly through direct elections. Currently, the MB control the boards of several professional syndicates including the Lawyer's Syndicate, once considered the bastion of liberalism. MB members---usually running as independents--- have been successful in winning a significant number of seats in all parliamentary elections from 1984 to 2000, with the exception of the 1990 elections which they boycotted. Their willingness to form alliances with various political parties such as the Wafd in 1984 elections and the Liberal and Labor parties in 1987 elections demonstrates the fact that they are ready to let pragmatic considerations override their ideological principles. Currently, MB members hold 17 seats in the 454-seat People's Assembly.

The MB welcomed the proposed amendment to the Constitution for direct contested presidential elections. The MB's spokesman Mohammed Mahdi Akef declared that the MB will monitor the constitutional changes. He claimed that the MB "will not hesitate in naming a candidate" if the proposed amendment allows for independent candidates. Even though the government allows the MB, despite its illegal status, an operative margin, it is unlikely that it will tolerate MB's participation in the presidential elections. Officials have made it clear that independent candidates will only be eligible to run in the elections with an---as yet--- unspecified number of parliamentary votes. Given that the state party holds over 85% of parliamentary seats, it is highly doubtful that an MB member will be endorsed. Moreover, the government's continual imprisonment of MB members---estimated at present to be about 15, 000 in Egyptian jails--- as well as the persistence of emergency laws and the disrespect of the government for political rights and the rule of law, present formidable barriers to any serious campaigning by a potential MB presidential candidate.