FEBRUARY 05 NEWSLETTER
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Opposition's Reservations on Mubarak's Constitutional Initiative

In a surprise move, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak asked parliament to amend article 76 of the Constitution to allow for multiple candidates to run in direct presidential elections, in place of the previous referendum system where 2/3 of the parliament nominates a single candidate. Mubarak claimed that this move is aimed at rendering the Constitution "in line with this stage of our nation's history" and at allowing the political opposition to participate in the nation's future.

Mubarak's announcement comes days after the opposition and the regime agreed to postpone constitutional reform to next year. Observers claim that this move is intended to silence both internal and external critics who have been increasingly vocal in demanding for constitutional change. Egyptian opposition leaders have been actively struggling for constitutional reform for the past several months. Noteworthy, is that the opposition held on February 22nd the largest protest against the regime in modern Egyptian history demanding free and fair competitive presidential elections. External pressure has also played a role given that Mubarak's unexpected announcement came days after US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice canceled a visit to Egypt allegedly in protest at its lack of democracy.

Reservations remain that no candidate can conduct a serious presidential campaign in such a short time span given that the elections are scheduled for October 2005. Moreover, it is important to note that the leader of Al-Ghad Party, which held the biggest share of seats among the opposition in parliament, remains imprisoned under -what many observers claim- fabricated charges.

In addition, leaders of the opposition believe that amendments to article 76 need to be complemented with other changes such as the abolition of emergency laws, which have been in effect in Egypt since Sadat's assassination in 1981. Moreover, the president's proposal suggests that any candidate would need an unspecified number of parliamentary and local assemblies' votes. Given that the state party NDP controls over 85% of parliament, the exact number of necessary votes might prove to be crucial. Emergency laws also must be lifted to guarantee political rights and to allow candidates to conduct their campaigns freely. The opposition also claims that article 77, which determines the length of presidential terms and allows for an incumbent president to be re-elected indefinitely, needs to be amended. Government officials declared that the specific stipulations of the proposed reform will be debated in parliament in the upcoming two weeks, while final amendments are expected to pass next May. While Mubarak's announcement presents a positive step, only the details of the proposed reform will determine if indeed these proposals will amount to a genuine democratization of the nation's political system.