FEBRUARY 05 NEWSLETTER
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The Charade Continues
By Hassan Elsawaf

A few days after Qaddafi saw Saddam being dragged out of his rat hole, he decided to come clean on his nuclear weapons programme and bought himself around twenty more years of trouble-free tyranny. The international community was delighted and Libya got back on the map.
Under pressure, the human mind will always act with survival in mind. Which is why it is a bit too early to begin celebrating President Mubarak’s decision to allow competitors into the race for the job he considers a birthright. His advisers have painted the path of least resistance and plainly expect him to get re-elected (sorry, that should be re-re-re-re-elected). Just do it in a way that will silence the critics, they must have told him. We have the media at our disposal. We can still deal with any serious opposition. We won’t even allow Ayman Nur out yet. We will do some skilful procrastinating, making sure to go through the tedious motions of a plebiscite and parliamentary approval to modify article 76. By the time we’re done, there won’t be any time left for any serious challenge. You will win, only not the way you’re used to.

This latest charade is an affront to the Egyptian people. Somebody who’s been in military-backed power for twenty four years does not turn into a democracy advocate overnight and make ridiculous statements of his dedication to reform and change. He clings on to power for all he’s worth and only does the bare minimum he can get away with to keep the wolves at bay.

With Secretary Rice trouncing the Egyptian foreign minister and refusing to attend the G-8 meeting in Egypt, as well as mounting international and internal pressure, the Egyptian strongman finally cracked. He did not make that decision out of conviction. He made it for sheer survival. He would probably have not been welcome in Washington had he not given Mr. Bush something.

Some Egyptians are euphoric about what they see as a full transformation to a free and open society. To them I say: hold your horses. We still have many mountains to climb. There are many political prisoners in custody. Torture in custody is rampant and brutal. Ask the people of El Arish what the authorities have been doing to them since the Taba explosions.

Do not make the mistake of showering praise on a regime that has done nothing but persistently pull back its country. Wait to see what kind of leeway opposition candidates are allowed or what they will have to do in order to become eligible to run.

There is no question that change is in the air and that the Egyptian people will now be sufficiently emboldened to begin asking for rights that, in most countries, are considered inalienable. It will be interesting to watch events unfold.

If Mr. Mubarak is serious about reform, he can do only one thing: resign with dignity and guarantee real elections in his wake.