JANUARY 05 NEWSLETTER
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Iraq: Elections in a Chaotic Environment

Despite predictions by many political observers regarding the failure of Iraqi elections in light of the precarious security situation, on January 30th 2005 the Iraqi people stunned the whole world by showing a high level of voter turnout (60 %).
The Iraqis were electing a 275-member transitional National Assembly, whose responsibilities include drafting a new constitution, and selecting the country's next president and two vice presidents. The president in turn, will select a prime minister.Voters were also electing members of 18 provincial councils. In addition, residents of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region were electing a Kurdish parliament.
A number of observers claimed that the Iraqi elections were illegitimate due to the persistence of the occupation forces. Such a claim is entirely justified if the occupation interferes in the management of the electoral process. However, the situation in Iraq was totally different due to the fact that the occupation forces kept their hands out of the electoral process and showed a high degree of neutrality. In fact, the main task of the occupation forces was to assist the Iraqi security in cases of emergency. History demonstrates that highly totalitarian industrialized states defeated in War II like Germany, Austria, and Japan witnessed democratic elections under foreign occupation which was the first essential step that allowed them eventually to consolidate and establish a full-fledged stable democratic system. Additional evidence comes from several former colonies which witnessed elections during their final colonial phases, in which authority was transferred from the occupation authorities to national governments. Hence, the Iraqi elections and the coming to power of an elected government is the necessary initial step in the process that should lead to the termination of the occupation.
The Iraqi elections were also perceived as a "fake" scenario that aims to legitimize the continued existence of the occupation for an indefinite period – a situation that is bound to exacerbate the already deepening ethnic and religious divisions among the Iraqi people which could eventually lead to a dismembering of Iraq into three autonomous regions -Sunni, Kurdish, and Shiia. But rational reflection will readily show that this perception of the U.S's intentions is incorrect. All indicators point to the desire of the U.S to extricate itself from a physical presence in Iraq as soon as possible. First is the extremely high cost in terms of expense and causalities borne by the U.S every day it stays there; second is the general mood of their young men and women; third it is only an elected Iraqi government which can be a partner to the Americans in any negotiations to end the occupation. .In addition, dividing Iraq is counterproductive from the standpoint of the US since such a move could be conducive to a civil war that would disturb the security of the Gulf region – in which U.S has vital interests - and could function as a fertile soil for terrorism that threatens the security of the US at home..
Even though the Iraqi elections will have minimal impact in the short run, the experience could function as a learning ground for the Iraqi people, who have never had free elections. No one maintains that the election is and by itself will necessary turn Iraq into a democracy , but it is nevertheless the basic starting point for a future democratic Iraq. The elections also represented a defeat for the jihadists, who had waged an increasingly vicious insurrection. Their claim that democracy is somehow a neo-imperialist, anti-Islamic and Zionist plot, has been undermined by the determination of the Iraqi people who turned out to vote in great numbers despite the threats of the militants. Furthermore, the elections could also have a spill-over effect in the sense that it may function as an example for authoritarian Arab regimes that have been enjoying independence for decades without allowing free competitive elections.