Learning From History

By Hassan Elsawaf

History is a marvellous teacher. It can help us avert mistakes and can prove useful to society; providing, of course, that we are willing to learn.

Examples abound of obtuse despots unable to learn when to quit. Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette were oblivious to the growing danger around them. So was the last Russian tsar; even Saddam Hussein could have avoided his ignominious fate.

In the face of mounting internal pressure, buttressed by a savvy international community aware of the overwhelming secular complexion of the opposition, the Egyptian leadership is running out of time. Its pathetic excuse of fundamentalism being the only viable power to emerge from the ashes of an open election is wearing thin. I am no great fan of President Mubarak’s, but I certainly don’t fancy a Mussolini scenario.

Allowing fantasy to get hold of me? Perhaps, at this stage it is somewhat premature to envisage such a dramatic outcome. Yet, there is no doubt that the Egyptian streets are simmering with frustrated nothing-to-lose youngsters aware of their real predicament, unadulterated dictatorship, and determined to put an end to it. Their numbers are still small, but growing steadily. The paranoid security forces still heavily outnumber the demonstrators, but for how long?

The most significant change Egypt has seen in the last few months is a considerable raising of the bar when it comes to audacity. I, myself, would never have dared writing a piece like this a year ago. With foreign television crews and reporters covering every uprising, the security forces cannot do their customary work. They are forced to watch from a distance and to be at their best behaviour. That has emboldened many a would-be pacifist. A chain reaction is emerging.

Perhaps Mr. Mubarak has really had enough and would love to quit but is unable to, faced with the daunting prospect of a nasty probe or two regarding his conduct in office. After all, the phrase ‘former president’ is not part of the Egyptian vernacular.

Some suggest a peaceful abdication in exchange for a guarantee that the president and his family will be allowed to keep their modest savings and live out their lives in dignity and safety. As with the diminishing rewards the Palestinian people were offered every time they refused a deal, President Mubarak ought to consider that he is still in a relatively strong bargaining position He should not make the mistake of clinging on to a mirage.

What is beyond dispute is that the existing situation is untenable. It is perhaps naïve to ask Mr. Mubarak to go for the sake of avoiding unrest and, possibly, bloodshed. He might be easier induced through personal safety considerations, not imminent, granted, but definitely unstoppable.

The people of Egypt are finally beginning to realise that what they have is a sinister indigenous occupation, which they must purge if they are to live like human beings.