Democratic Developments in Egypt: Cause for Optimism?

Winds of Change

No observer of the political scene in Egypt can deny that new players are struggling for participatory roles, several old actors are calling for more significant roles, and established stars are forced to become more and more defensive in order to maintain their traditional leading privileges. Far from being a popular movement, the drama unfolding these days in Egypt is in fact the tremors of an awakening civil society characterized by an unprecedented amount of open debate and political excitement. A nascent reform movement-- that not long ago was merely endorsed by brave but rather isolated elements within civil society -- has now found supporters among the nation’s students, professors, judges, and several liberal, leftist, nationalist, and Islamist politicians and other public figures. While it remains debatable if the recent string of vocal opposition against the regime (whether in the form of demonstrations, public declarations demanding reform, and proposals for change voiced in the People’s Assembly) is a coordinated effort by various opponents to the status quo, the combined effect of these actions has forced the regime to resort to coercive measures while simultaneously increasing its lip-service and promises to democratize.

The Regime's Insecurity

On the anniversary of the Prophet’s birth, President Mubarak in a speech at the Ministry of Endowments insisted that the government is the pioneer of reform in Egypt, claiming that he previously urged Parliament to legislate reforms before the end of the parliamentary session in June 2005, so as to render widespread “democratic practice and participation” a reality. The President’s assertions are not surprising considering the fact that the regime is coming under severe pressure even from unexpected quarters. For example, the yearly report released in mid-April by the National Supreme Council for Human Rights—a government-created institution— was very critical of the systemic use of torture by Egyptian security forces; and urged for an immediate abolition of the emergency laws. The report, which came only a week after the Azhar bombing, also warned against the use of widespread repression to combat terrorism.

Attacks and Counter-Attacks—Rising Power of Muslim Brotherhood

With the increasing incidents of public demonstrations calling for democratic reforms, the regime's initial tolerance was reverted. In March 2005, the Minister of Interior declared that the government will no longer tolerate unauthorized protests. Sure enough, security forces prevented student protests from breaking out of campuses into the streets, and arrested several student leaders. One major such incident occurred when up to 10, 000 university students and professors, from the Nile Delta to Upper Egypt, protested the regime’s interference in university affairs and called for an end to emergency laws, the rescinding of security by-laws that constrain free student actions, and comprehensive political and economic reforms.

The moving force underlying the rising wave of popular protest is the well organized and potent power of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood. Despite the fact that about 230 MB members were arrested in late March during the Cairo and Northern governorates’ demonstrations against the regime, the Brotherhood still managed to stage many of the April student demonstrations. The MB’s popularity, which has long worried the government, today takes on a new dimension as several MB members join other secular forces in the Kifaya movement- which is calling for an end to the present regime- to present a mutual platform of broad demands: the abolition of emergency laws, free and fair elections, and the guarantee of citizens’ political and civil rights.

International Community to Start Dialogue with Islamists Increases Pressure on the Regime
The recent declarations by the US and the EU indicating their willingness to open dialogue with moderate Islamic movements present a new challenge to the Egyptian government, which has always relied on the threat of militant Islamists to stall reforms. Statements by Liz Cheney, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, such as: "whoever says that democracy will bring extremists to government wants to evade democratic reforms", signal that the Egyptian government will no longer be able exploit the bogeyman of radical Islam to silence dissent. It is ironic, and no doubt worrisome to the Egyptian regime, that the same week it detained several MB members without charges and prevented two senior members from traveling to Algiers for an Arab nationalism conference, the EU admitted its error of not outreaching to “representative Islam-inspired organizations” in its efforts to promote democracy in the Middle East.

Judges Join the Reform Campaign

Increasing the regime’s grievances, the General Association of Egypt’s Judges has threatened in mid-April to abstain from supervising the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections unless laws guaranteeing judicial independence are passed. It seems that judges, wishing to benefit from the general climate of political ferment and from the regime’s need to receive the judicial stamp of approval on the upcoming elections, decided to bring to the forefront demands that they have advocated since 1986. The judges’ grievances include the fact that the judiciary remains subordinate to the executive branch, with the Ministry of Justice exercising wide administrative powers to appoint judges and determine their salaries, hereby maintaining leverage to guarantee their allegiance. The Judges’ Club also protested the fact that the Ministry of Justice appoints courts’ chief judges and the members of the Supreme Judicial Council. The Judges’ Club also called for the abolition of emergency laws which allow for the creation of emergency military courts and other “exceptional courts”— that operate under tight control of the executive branch. As for electoral supervision, the judges’ claimed that in previous elections their role was confined to monitoring the voting process within the voting booths, while outside the polling stations security forces remained unchecked and often prevented the regime's political opponents from entering the booths. Judge Ahmed Mahdi of the Egyptian Court of Cassation argued that in order for elections to be fair and transparent, judges must supervise the entire electoral process from start to finish, from drawing up registration lists to counting the ballots and announcing the results. In short, the judges demanded the independence of the judicial authority as guaranteed by articles 166-168 of the Egyptian Constitution, but subsequently subverted by various laws such as Law 47 of 1972, which places judicial affairs under the supervision of the Ministry of Justice. The judges presented a proposed draft of the desired law to the People’s Assembly, declaring that the General Association of Egypt’s Judges will reconvene on May 13th 2005 to decide their course of action if their demands go unheeded. Thus far, the official response has been unpromising as the Minister of Justice stalled by setting-up a special committee to study the judges’ demands, while the current executive-appointed Supreme Judicial Council dubbed the complaining judges a “rogue minority.” This hardly augers well for the promised democratic reforms, for without a truly independent judiciary there can be no democracy.

What next?

Although these developments do not, until now, constitute a grave threat to the incumbent regime, this unprecedented strident and blunt criticism of the regime from many quarters presents the ruling elite with a crisis situation. Thus far, the regime has responded with only soothing promises, but it is hoped that an increase of political pressure and public awareness will finally compel the regime to act on its declared commitment to democratize.