The Three Scenarios Set by the UNDP Report

The recently published UNDP report 2004 presented three possible future scenarios with reflect to the behavior of Arab regimes insofar as concerned: the impending disaster scenario, the flourishing alternative, and the "half way house" scenario.

The impending disaster scenario is the outcome in case Arab regimes persisted in their current repressive behavior which will inevitably lead to the eruption of societal conflicts that will develop into upheavals and disorder with a subsequent transfer of power to the victorious factions. Such an outcome beside the material loss and the burden of human suffering that it entails does not guarantee that the regime which acquired power through violence will necessarily establish good governance. Indeed, it is highly improbable that it will do so.

In fact, this first scenario if it does occur will be tragic, since the overwhelming majority of the Arab people would like to follow a peaceful path to democracy. Thus, so far Arab reformers have sought to mobilize people and encourage them to strike and demonstrate peacefully. This nonviolent approach was explicit in the peaceful demonstrations and marches that the Arab streets have witnessed in the last few months, which took care not to provide Arab governments with an excuse to brand them as vandalists and may be terrorists.

The much more optimistic second scenario possibly foresees the possibility of reform though peaceful dialogue among the ruling elite and "pro- reform" sectors in society. A successful outcome of the dialogue would in all likelihood lead to good governance and true "human renaissance in the Arab world. This scenario is not far fetched since substantive dialogue is already taking place albeit at a very slow pace. Here also the outcome is not guaranteed since the collapse of the dialogue may precipitate a deadlock that could lead to very unpleasant consequences.

The third scenario considers the possibility that reform is forcibly imposed by external Western powers. The dilemma with that it violates the very principles of freedom and good governance which the external powers ostensibly wish to establish. However, cooperation with external non-governmental and governmental forces could be worthwhile if principles of freedom and self-determination are respected by both parties.

The empirical reality of the current situation indicates that an appropriate combination of the second and third scenarios is the optimum recipe. It is clear that neither the Arab internal forces by themselves nor the external one alone can bring about clear desired outcome within a reasonable time. Therefore, the possible co-operation, suggested by the report, between both the internal and the external forces, with the later exerting pressure on the regime and simultaneously energizing civil society and other internal forces calling for democracy could be highly rewarding. In this regard, democracy spoilers who often denounce anything western and who attack civil society organizations for their co-operation with their western counterparts will be sorely challenged to explain why they accept western technology and reject universal democratic values of freedom, transparency, and the right of all citizens participate meaningfully in the affairs of their country.