Beyond Egypt's Presidential Election

By Saad Eddin Ibrahim

Nearly two months after the fact, Egyptians are still getting fresh accounts of the irregularities and outright fraud that marred their first multi-candidate presidential election. With the fear barrier disintegrating, more and more people are speaking out impatiently. Mubarak himself has finally been downsized to human proportions as critics line up to question his entire electoral record.

Only three months earlier, his government had reported that 57% or 17 million voters turned out in a constitutional referendum, despite widespread boycotts. Yet in September, the government reported that only 23% of the electorate or 7 million people voted in the presidential election that was passionately contested by at least three major parties. Is it possible that more people would vote in a constitutional referendum than the first ever multiparty elections that it established? The fact is that this time, with 6,000 domestic monitors and more than 200 foreign reporters on the scene, the regime was cornered into reducing both its cheating and lying margins, though by no means did it completely eschew its previous ways.

The public debates that ensued have revealed some new and unexpected twists. One of these is a revised attitude toward the outside world. Another is a rethinking of the role of the much-maligned Muslim Brotherhood.

Many of the opposition parties that once went along with the Mubarak regime in opposing international election monitoring are now loudly insisting on it for the upcoming November parliamentary elections. This is a major development in the evolution of Egyptian political culture, long replete with xenophobia and conspiratorial theories concerning the outside world. Even the most anti- American leftists are exclaiming: where do Bush and the U.S stand vis--vis this sham presidential election? Will the West be similarly oblivious to the expected travesties in the parliamentary elections?

At the heart of it, the Egyptian opposition is still doubtful about the sincerity of President George Bush's liberty and democracy exhortations. Some went as far as accusing the US of duplicity and outright support for the Mubarak election campaign. This might have been suspected because Gamal Mubarak, the president's son and campaign manager shows a fascination with all things American, including heavy reliance on US-style advertising gimmicks during the campaign. The fact that members of Mubark' s inner circle were shuttling back and forth between Cairo and Washington during the weeks leading up to the election gave added credibility to the allegation. Some are now holding both Mubarak and, collaterally, the US accountable for whether he fulfills his many campaign promises. These include finding work for five I heard it was closer to nine million unemployed Egyptians, most of whom are young college graduates. Restoration of the independence of the judiciary has been a pressing demand for years; and Mubarak promised to sign the draft law that has been languishing on his desk if elected. The same applies to the abrogation of Emergency Law, in effect since Mubarak's ascendancy to power in 1981.Another crucial issue he promised to address is replacing the parliamentary electoral system of winner takes all with one of proportionate representation, insuring a greater measure of legislative power sharing.

Combating corruption was a campaign issue that the major challengerAyman Nour seized on doggedly. He dared Mubarak and other members of his family to reveal the size and source of their assets. They deferred during the campaign but promised to do so shortly afterward.

One issue Mubarak is still adamant about, and hence made no campaign promises, is his refusal to legalize the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), the world's oldest Islamic movement. Believed to be the strongest opposition bloc, the MB has long enjoyed a de facto popular legitimacy. During the presidential campaign, nearly all the opposition parties courted them by pledging to work for legalization of the party. Increasingly, now it looks like all of Egypt's political classes except Mubarak's party have come to support this position. Thus, instead of Mubarak isolating the Muslim Brotherhood, they have managed to isolate him. To consolidate their moral gains and prepare for upcoming parliamentary elections, the MB has joined the chorus calling for international election monitoring in November.

This is a time of tremendous foment in Egypt. It demands that the US and the rest of the world stay vigilant and bear witness to Egyptian popular demands. If it is too much to expect outright support for the fledgling dissident movement, at least hold Mubarak accountable for those promises he made. Casting a Presidential Ballot.