August 06 Newsletter

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Who Won the Lebanese War?
 Maria Dayton

International media coverage showcasing widespread support for Hezbollah in the Arab street has succeeded in overshadowing genuine debates taking place between elites in the Arab media over the war in Lebanon. The general sentiment of the Arab public, as sugg ested by Ibn Khaldun’s own polling indicating skyrocketing popularity for leader Hassan Nasrallah, is straightforward: that the war was a victory for Hezbollah, a tragic loss for the Lebanese people, a rare military defeat for Israel, and an even bigger loss for its American benefactor. Most journalists declared Hezbollah’s success as unconditional with a long list of assorted losers including: Israel, the US, the Lebanese, various Arab regimes, and even the Palestinians.n But a look at the discussion amongst Arab opinion leaders reveals an undercurrent of disquiet about what this war will ultimately mean in the future, not only to the Lebanese but to the Arab and Muslim worlds as well.

 One of the fears expressed in the Arab media has been the worry that Hezbollah’s military victory might be diluted through diplomatic efforts. To take one example, journalist Arafan Nizam al-Din of al-Hayat described a list of conditional factors that would ultimately decide the outcome of the war: the extent to which Resolution 1701 is implemented, the sincerity of the signatories, Israel’s adhesion to ceasefire regulations, and the overall strength of the Lebanese army.

Disagreements have also broken out between members of the Lebanese media and other Arab journalists due to the Lebanese feeling that their misfortune had been misappropriated to the larger Arab cause. Lebanese writers were also more likely to question the role of Hezbollah as well as Syria and Iran within the country and to speculate on their future positions in Lebanese politics. Not surprisingly, Arab state-supported media across the Middle East, no doubt reflecting the views of their nervous patrons, also questioned the motives and future of Hezbollah as a power player in the region.

 Overall, despite the triumphant rhetoric, the debates within the Arab media illustrate an uncertainty about the future as well as an overwhelming lack of faith in the ability of existing Arab regimes to help shape the evolution of Middle Eastern politics.

 Editor’s Note: The following piece, by Dr. Mustafa El Nabarawy of the Center for Humanitarian Dialogue, is an outlier in this debate in that its author argues that now is the time for resistance to take the form of development and self-criticism rather than armed struggle.