Ibn Khaldun Center for Development Studies - Articles by Dr. Saad Eddin Ibrahim

An apt analogy popular in Egypt compares Mubarak to Leonid Brezhnev, who for two decades presided over the Soviet Union's stagnation and decline. Egypt's status as a regional power under Mubarak has similarly weakened steadily. On the economic front, annual foreign investment inflows have plummeted from $3 billion in the mid-1990s to a minuscule $300 million in 2003.

Egypt is undergoing a heated nationwide debate over political reform. The central issue is a demand by all opposition parties and civil society groups to amend the 1971 constitution and abolish the 23-year-old state of emergency that was imposed following Anwar Sadat's assassination in 1981.

Such demands are not new. But President Hosni Mubarak and the ruling National Democratic Party have been stonewalling since the mid-1980s. What makes the demands for reform more pressing this time are ominous developments in Egypt, the region, and in the wider world.

At home, concern about Mubarak's age (76) and deteriorating health has grown. Mubarak's ill health, widely rumoured for years, was never officially acknowledged until November 2003, when it could no longer be covered up. While speaking to parliament, Mubarak fainted before millions of TV viewers. Although he returned an hour later and delivered the rest of his speech, Egyptians began to demand greater transparency regarding the president's health as well as other state affairs.

Meanwhile, Egypt's sagging economy, high unemployment rate, and rampant corruption have driven many Egyptian youngsters to despair. More than one half of living Egyptians were born since Mubarak assumed office. According to a recent report by the United Nations Development Programme, roughly half of those between 15 and 30 years old dream of emigrating to Europe, North America, or Australia.

There are weekly reports of would-be illegal Egyptian immigrants drowning in the Mediterranean. A few weeks ago, several youngsters suffocated to death in overloaded trucks while being deported back to Egypt across the Libyan desert. The incident caused an uproar that compelled the authorities to arrest, interrogate, and try the Egyptian police officers in charge.

Regional and international events have also emboldened the Egyptian opposition, not only to press for reform, but also to focus on amending the constitution's articles that pertain to the presidency. Mubarak has been re-elected four times, and rumours have persisted that he will either seek a fifth six-year term or establish a ‘hereditary republic' and groom his 41-year old son, Gamal, to succeed him, like Syria's Hafez al-Assad and son, Bashar.

The opposition battle cry is "No" to Mubarak's re-election and "No" to passing the presidency to Gamal. Many Egyptians may not have major misgivings about Gamal Mubarak per se, but they find it mortifying that, after 24 years of the father, they might be stuck with another 24 or more years of the son.

The current constitution was adopted in October 1971, and has 211 articles, 30 of which concern the presidency. The president is nominated by two-thirds of the People's Assembly, and endorsed in a plebiscite that allows only for a simple "Yes" or "No." A simple majority of the ballots is required to win a six-year term, which is renewable indefinitely by the same process.

These lax procedures contrast jarringly with the president's powers. The president is the head of state and commander-in-chief; officiates over the Supreme Judiciary Council, the Supreme Police Council, and the Cabinet of Ministers; and can appoint and recall one or more vice-presidents at his sole discretion. He also appoints the prime minister and senior ministers, and must approve all other ministers, ambassadors, and state representatives. He can call general elections, declare war, impose a state of emergency, and issue decrees that have the force of law.

There are no checks and balances on these powers. A single article stipulates that, "Accusation of the president of committing grand treason or any other criminal act may be made upon a motion submitted by at least one-third of members of the People's Assembly and approved by two-thirds." The president is then suspended from carrying out his duties, and the vice-president fills in until the accusation is resolved.

But Mubarak has never enacted the law essential to implementing this article or appointed a vice-president, despite repeated popular demands to do so. The result has been a de facto ‘imperial presidency', with Mubarak likened to the god-king pharaohs of ancient Egypt. No other head of state in modern times enjoys as much power.

A more apt analogy popular in Egypt compares Mubarak to Leonid Brezhnev, who for two decades presided over the Soviet Union's stagnation and decline. Egypt's status as a regional power under Mubarak has similarly weakened steadily. On the economic front, annual foreign investment inflows have plummeted from $3 billion in the mid-1990s to a minuscule $300 million in 2003.

Demands for reform are now focused on introducing direct presidential elections with two or more contenders, and limiting presidents to two consecutive terms in office. It is no less important to reduce the presidency's sweeping powers and formulate viable mechanisms for enforcing the accountability of all public officials without exception.

Should Mubarak and his government fail to recommend constitutional amendments that satisfy these demands, ever more Egyptians will desert the regime and risk their lives in search of salvation in other lands.