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A CRACK IN THE SPHINXby Saad Eddin Ibrahim
Wall Street Journal March 2, 2005

The surprise decision by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to propose a constitutional amendment, opening up the process of electing the president by direct competitive balloting, may well be a giant step for democracy in Egypt and the Arab World. Western readers used to pluralistic democracy may find it hard to understand what a potentially huge shift this will be in a country used to imposed military rulers for over 50 years. The most an Egyptian citizen could engage in this process was to show up on the day of a presidential referendum every six years, to say Yes or No to the single name appearing on the ballot. This explains why someone like Mr. Mubarak always received over 90% from an indifferent voter turnout. Syrian and Iraqi strongmen did even better, no doubt because Saddam Hussein demanded names and addresses at the bottom of each ballot.

Many area specialists have long maintained that democratization in the Middle East will not get far until Egypt is fully engaged in the process. And Egypt could not truly set out on a path of democratization without first amending its constitution -- to downsize the pharaonic powers of its president and set limits on his term in office. (Mr. Mubarak is already into his 24th year.) So the announcement is an important first step, one that the regime may assume it will be able to control to its own advantage, but which may not be that easy to contain once people begin to feel empowered. The genie is out of the bottle.

At any rate, it is not only Egypt that is now embarking on the road of democracy in this troubled region. Turkey at one end of the Middle East and Morocco at the other are already well on the way. The real groundswell this time seems to have come from the close timing and positive outcomes of recent elections in Iraq, Palestine and to a lesser degree in Saudi Arabia. The unprecedented demonstrations against Syrian occupation of Lebanon following the assassination of its former prime minister show no signs of abating, and Egyptian opposition groups have staged increasingly bold marches and other forms of civil disobedience in the last few weeks. The catalyst for their anger was the arrest and detention of opposition leader Ayman Nour at the end of January. That heavy-handed act reinvigorated the homegrown "Kifaya," or Enough, movement against further rule by the Mubarak regime. Suddenly the popular wisdom that Egyptians are passive and afraid to act did not seem to be holding up. An alliance of local, regional and international forces is joining forces against tyranny-as-usual on the banks of the Nile.

Only a month ago, Mr. Mubarak dismissed demands for constitutional reform as "futile." No matter what combination of events brought about his change of heart, the Mubarak initiative should be welcomed. It is a necessary -- but insufficient -- first step for overhauling the stagnant political system. Egyptians are already weary of token reforms à la Tunisia, where longstanding President Ben-Ali caricatured a constitutional amendment that made it look as if he was opening the door for competitive presidential elections, then staged a sham contest with a few hand-picked "opponents." In previous Tunisian referenda, Mr. Ben-Ali used to get 99% of the votes; with the new ploy he got 96%. It was a joke that made Tunisians cry.

We assume that President Mubarak is more serious. As a measure of sincerity, he needs to order the immediate release of the ailing opposition leader Ayman Nour, and take steps to terminate the 24-year-long state of emergency, which effectively prevents political campaigning to take place. We call on him to endorse term limits of no more than two successive five-year terms. Equally needed are confidence-building measures in a free political process that include open and equal access to the media, currently state-controlled. I announced that I would contest this upcoming presidential election as a way of opening debate on these needed reforms, but I would gladly go back to my role as a private citizen once guaranteed a free and open election this fall.

If seriously implemented, these steps will transform Mr. Mubarak's lasting legacy to his people. Along with events in Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine, it may well usher in an Arab Spring of freedom, so very long overdue.